Feb 2026

What's new in Feb 2026!

Certainty & Probability

たぶん (Probably)

Learn Japanese たぶん for expressing moderate probability. Master how to say 'probably,' 'maybe,' and make tentative predictions.

What is たぶん?

たぶん is an adverb expressing moderate probability or uncertainty, meaning "probably," "maybe," "perhaps," or "likely." It shows the speaker thinks something is likely but isn't certain.

たぶん雨が降る
"It'll probably rain"

たぶん来ると思う
"I think he'll probably come"

たぶん大丈夫
"It's probably okay"

Usage and Meaning

Expressing moderate certainty

たぶん行く
"I'll probably go"

たぶん晴れる
"It'll probably be sunny"

Shows 50-70% confidence
Not completely sure

Making tentative predictions

たぶん彼は知らない
"He probably doesn't know"

たぶん間違っている
"It's probably wrong"

Uncertain estimation

Softening statements

Direct: 来る
"He'll come"

Softer: たぶん来る
"He'll probably come"

Less assertive

Certainty Level

Where たぶん fits

20-40%: もしかしたら (maybe/possibly)
30-50%: かもしれない (might)
50-70%: たぶん (probably)
70-90%: きっと (surely)
90%+: 絶対に (absolutely)

たぶん = moderate probability

Combining with Other Patterns

たぶん + だろう

たぶん来るだろう
"He'll probably come"

Double probability marker
Common combination

たぶん + と思う

たぶん行くと思う
"I think I'll probably go"

Layered uncertainty
Very tentative

たぶん + かもしれない (redundant)

Redundant: たぶん来るかもしれない ⚠️
Better: たぶん来ると思う ✓
Or: 来るかもしれない ✓

Avoid double uncertainty

Position in Sentence

Beginning of sentence

たぶん、明日は晴れる
"Probably, it'll be sunny tomorrow"

Emphasis on uncertainty

Before verb/adjective

彼はたぶん来る
"He'll probably come"

たぶん正しい
"It's probably correct"

Most common position

Polite and Casual

Works in both

Casual: たぶん大丈夫だと思う
"I think it's probably okay"

Polite: たぶん大丈夫だと思います
"I think it's probably okay"

Adjust verb ending

Common Contexts

Making plans

たぶん行けると思う
"I think I can probably go"

たぶん無理かな
"It's probably impossible"

Uncertain commitments

Giving opinions

たぶんそうだと思う
"I think that's probably so"

たぶん彼が正しい
"He's probably right"

Tentative opinions

Predictions

たぶん雨が降る
"It'll probably rain"

たぶん遅れる
"I'll probably be late"

Uncertain forecasts

たぶん vs きっと

たぶん - Moderate (50-70%)

たぶん成功する
"It'll probably succeed"

Less confident
Neutral/cautious
Can be positive or negative

きっと - Strong (75-90%)

きっと成功する
"It'll surely succeed"

More confident
Optimistic
Mainly for positive outcomes

Example comparison

たぶん: たぶん雨が降る
"It'll probably rain"

きっと: きっと晴れる
"It'll surely be sunny"

Different confidence levels

たぶん vs おそらく

たぶん - Casual/neutral

たぶん来る
"He'll probably come"

Everyday conversation
Neutral tone

おそらく - Formal/written

おそらく来るでしょう
"He'll probably come"

More formal
Written language
Professional contexts

With Positive and Negative

Works with both

Positive: たぶん成功する
"Probably will succeed"

Negative: たぶん失敗する
"Probably will fail"

Neutral, works both ways

Common Patterns

たぶん～と思う

たぶんそうだと思う
"I think that's probably so"

たぶん間違ってると思う
"I think it's probably wrong"

Common, natural combination

たぶん～だろう

たぶん来るだろう
"He'll probably come"

たぶん大丈夫だろう
"It'll probably be okay"

Layered probability

たぶん～ね/よ

たぶん大丈夫だよ
"It's probably okay"

たぶん来るよね
"He'll probably come, right?"

Casual, conversational

Expressing Uncertainty

Shows lack of confidence

A: 彼、来る？
   "Is he coming?"

B: たぶんね
   "Probably"

Not sure, but likely

In Questions

Seeking opinions

たぶん正しいと思う？
"Do you think it's probably correct?"

たぶん間違ってるよね？
"It's probably wrong, right?"

Checking uncertain assumptions

たぶん alone (Short response)

As a standalone answer

A: 明日晴れる？
   "Will it be sunny tomorrow?"

B: たぶん
   "Probably"

Common short response

Regional Variations

Standard たぶん

たぶん行く
"I'll probably go"

Standard Japanese

Some dialects use 多分 (same)

Same meaning
Same usage
Written with kanji: 多分

Formal Alternatives

おそらく (formal)

おそらく成功するでしょう
"It will probably succeed"

More formal than たぶん

恐らく (written form)

恐らく正しいと思われる
"It's probably thought to be correct"

Formal written style

Common Mistakes

Overusing uncertainty markers

Redundant: たぶん来るかもしれないと思う ⚠️
Better: たぶん来ると思う ✓
Or: 来るかもしれない ✓

Don't stack too many

Using in very certain situations

Odd: たぶん太陽は東から昇る ⚠️
Natural: 太陽は東から昇る ✓

Don't use for facts

Showing Hesitation

Uncertain responses

A: 参加する？
   "Will you participate?"

B: うーん、たぶん...
   "Hmm, probably..."

Shows reluctance/uncertainty

Practice Sentences

Basic

たぶん雨が降る
"It'll probably rain"

たぶん来ないと思う
"I think he probably won't come"

たぶん大丈夫
"It's probably okay"

Intermediate

天気予報によると、明日はたぶん晴れる
"According to the forecast, it'll probably be sunny tomorrow"

時間があれば、たぶん行けると思います
"If I have time, I think I can probably go"

彼の話はたぶん本当だと思うけど、
確認したほうがいい
"I think his story is probably true, but
it's better to confirm"

Advanced

この方法でたぶんうまくいくと思うが、
100%の保証はできない。他の選択肢も
考えておいたほうがいいだろう。
状況によっては、別のアプローチが
必要になるかもしれない。
"I think this method will probably work, but
I can't give a 100% guarantee. It would be better
to consider other options too.
Depending on the situation, a different approach
might be necessary."

経済状況を見ると、来年の成長率は
たぶん今年より低くなるだろう。
専門家の多くもそう予測している。
ただし、予想外の出来事が起これば、
結果は変わる可能性がある。
"Looking at the economic situation, next year's growth rate
will probably be lower than this year.
Many experts also predict so.
However, if unexpected events occur,
the results might change."
  • きっと - Surely (higher certainty)
  • おそらく - Probably (formal)
  • かもしれない - Might (lower certainty)
  • だろう - Probably (conjecture)
  • もしかしたら - Maybe/Perhaps
  • Probability adverbs - Expressing likelihood